In his end of season press conference on Tuesday, Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher talked about the “aggressive retool” the team intends to undergo over the summer.
In particular, I have highlighted the role that youth and development are going to play in the processincluding the high draft pick they’ll have at their disposal in Montreal in a couple months — one of the few silver linings that come with a season as catastrophic as this one.
“We’ll have a pretty high pick this year that’ll be part of our team in probably the very near future,” Fletcher said. “That’s got to be a big part of it.”
Regardless of how the pingpong balls fall next Tuesday in the draft lottery, the Flyers will get a selection from the top of the incoming 2022 class. It’s just a matter of when that pick will be.
The Flyers finished the season with a 25-46-11 record and 61 points, and after Seattle lost its season finale to Winnipeg on Sunday, they were locked in as the league’s fourth-worst team.
As released by the NHL once the regular season concludedthey’ll have a 9.5 percent chance of jumping ahead to the No. 1 overall pick, sitting behind Seattle’s 11.5 percent chance, Arizona’s 13.5 percent, and league-worst Montreal’s 18.5 percent odds at getting it.
Because of a rule change to the lottery format, where teams can only jump a maximum of 10 spots up, the furthest the Flyers could slide back on the draft board is from fourth down to sixth.
Here’s the full look at the 16 non-playoff teams’ chances of getting the No. 1 overall pick:
| Team | 1st Pick Odds | 21-22 Record | points |
| Montréal | 18.5% | 22-49-11 | 55 |
| Arizona | 13.5% | 25-50-7 | 57 |
| Seattle | 11.5% | 27-49-6 | 60 |
| flyers | 9.5% | 25-46-11 | 61 |
| devils | 8.5% | 27-46-9 | 63 |
| chicago* | 7.5% | 28-42-12 | 68 |
| Ottawa | 6.5% | 33-42-7 | 73 |
| detroit | 6.0% | 32-40-10 | 74 |
| buffalo | 5.0% | 32-39-11 | 75 |
| Anaheim | 3.5% | 31-37-14 | 76 |
| Saint Joseph | 3.0% | 32-37-13 | 77 |
| columbus | 2.5% | 37-38-7 | 81 |
| New York Islanders | 2.0% | 37-35-10 | 84 |
| Winnipeg | 1.5% | 39-32-11 | 89 |
| vancouver | 0.5% | 40-30-12 | 92 |
| Vegas** | 0.5% | 43-31-8 | 94 |
*Pick transfers from Chicago to Columbus if not a top-two pick; **Pick transfers to Buffalo if not a top-10 pick
Then there are the odds for the Flyers landing anywhere 1-6, as projected by Tankathon. (Note that if the Flyers do move up, it’ll be to the No. 2 overall pick at minimum.)
| Pick | odds |
| one | 9.5% |
| two | 9.8% |
| 3 | N/A |
| 4 | 15.4% |
| 5 | 44.9% |
| 6 | 20.5% |
So what can they do with that?
Should the Flyers jump up to No. 1, the consensus top pick all season has been 18-year old Shane Wright out of the OHL. The 2022 draft class is generally considered to be a weaker one, and Wright isn’t projected to be the type of game-changer that Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews are. But he has shown to be an exceptional playmaker in juniors thanks to a combination of incredible vision and anticipation, and at the pro level, knowing when and where everyone is going to be a major advantage.
The likelihood, however, is that the Flyers will land elsewhere, and they’ll have a fair share of options to consider.
Personally, I think they should prioritize high-end offensive talent since the team as it’s constructed now severely lacks offensive punch.
Last month, we highlighted two center prospects that should be able to help in that regard: 17-year old Logan Cooley out of the US National Development Program and 18-year old Matthew Savoie out of the Western Hockey Hockey League.
Both prospects are highly-touted skaters — NHL Central Scouting has Cooley as its No. 2 ranked North American skater and Savoie at No. 3 — and both possess a skillset and approach to the game that, so far, has meant one thing: When either is one the ice, the puck is heading toward the other team’s net.
Cooley, a Pittsburgh native who Tankathon projects the Flyers landing at No. 4, gets it done with quick skating and even quicker thinking. Savoie gets it done with shiftiness, blazing speed, and a wicked shot.
Other options expected to be within the top 6 include big forward Juraj Slafkovsky out of Finland’s Liiga, and Slovak defenseman Simon Nemec, who’s projected as the top blueliner in the ’22 class.
There’s a lot of work for the Flyers to do over the summer if they want to climb back into relevance. But first they’ll have to see where the ping-pong balls fall next Tuesday.
The NHL Draft begins July 7.
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