Welcome to our daily game probabilities page where you will find the win probability for each of the night’s games, as well as betting advice based on how those probabilities compare to marketplace odds. The game probabilities take into account each team’s strength (based on projected rosters), home ice and rest. Each team’s projected strength is based on the projected value of the players on its roster based on Game Score Valued Added (GSVA). You can read more about GSVA and the model here.
This page will be updated each morning between 10:00 am and 12:00 pm
For those unfamiliar with betting, I wrote to guide a few years ago that still holds up. It sums up the basic tricks of the trade and I urge you to read. While the model’s picks have been profitable in the past, there is no guarantee it will always be profitable – please don’t bet any money you’re uncomfortable losing.
For optimal betting strategy, I would recommend plugging each probability into a Kelly Criterion calculator with a Kelly multiplier of 0.35 (full Kelly is a bit too aggressive for a sport as variant as hockey). Recommended stake sizes will be included to make life easier for some of you, but those will be based on Bet MGM lines at time of posting. If you see a different line the Kelly Criterion calculator linked above is still the go-to.
Last updated: May 6, 2022, 10:00 am EST
Two big bets tonight, let’s get it.
- Boston (-125, 1.80) – 4.7 percent: Series isn’t over until a team loses at home. Boston has looked awful so far against Carolina despite controlling the run of play at five-on-five. Yo creo el Bruins can get within one here with at least one home win, especially against a third string goalie. I’m a bit shocked to see how big of a bet we have here on them considering there was no action through the first two games – and perhaps we should take matchup effects into a bigger account. But we haven’t seen Boston’s best yet. Tonight is the night.
- Minnesota (+105, 2.05) – 4.2 percent: We will never bet on the Wild and Game 2 was comforting towards the narrative that the Blues have their number. St. Louis’s blue line is pretty banged up and I think the Wild expose that vulnerability tonight.
Halved the stake on the wrong game, oop. Just one play today and it’s small as lines continue to tighten up.
- Florida -1.5 (+100, 2.00) – 1.0 percent: Let’s try this one again shall we.
An absolutely massive night to close out the season puts us at +20 units on the year. It was an absolute roller coaster getting there, but we’ll take it. Maybe next year we’ll turn towards recency a little sooner.
There’s no edge on today’s lone game, but it is a good time to talk about the playoffs which start tomorrow. Futures and series prices are the name of the game here and here’s what I would recommend based on the model.
To win Stanley Cup
I divided the usual Kelly stake by three here.
- Colorado +325 – 1 percent: I’m very high on Colorado and have the team’s odds at +233. There’s value on the favourite, but we’ll see if playoff hockey makes that difficult.
- Florida +550 – 1 percent: Betting on the two favorites is pretty square, but both these lines feel short. I have Florida at +339.
- Toronto +1000 – 0.3 percent: I don’t have a bet on the leaves to win the Cup, but I would at this price. Other markets are closer to +700. I’m at +725.
- Minnesota +1800 – 0.3 percent: The lone long shot I’ll take is the Wild. Obviously. I think they’re better than the markets indicate and have their odds closer to +1050.
To win Conference
I divided the usual Kelly stake by three here. Unsurprisingly it’s the same teams. You can double dip here, or go with one or the other (especially for teams like the Wild or Leafs who would be underdogs in the final against Florida and Colorado respectively, should those teams make it).
- Colorado +130 – 1.3 percent: I think this is close to 50/50 so getting plus-money is nice value even if it’s not a big payout.
- Florida +275 – 1.5 percent: The East is a dogfight, but the panthers are the clear favorite in that fight and have a cushier path than Toronto, Tampa Bay, Boston or Carolina. That first round matchup against Washington helps their odds a lot.
- Toronto +450 – 0.5 percent: I’m at +360 which is where other markets have this. Bad line.
- Minnesota +750 – 0.8 percent: This is a juicy one as I’m closer to +440. We never doubt the Wild in this house.
Again, reducing risk here to one-third as there will be daily game bets. But still some decent edges to be had. These are all series prices.
- Minnesota (-165, 1.61) – 3.5 percent: I’m at… umm… -298 on the Wild. Oops. Way off market due to the model’s lack of respect for the Blues, but the Wild simply do not let us down. They’re our ride or die.
- Florida 4-0 (+550, 6.50) – 0.8 percent: I’m at +376 for a sweep, so decent value at a juicy price.
- Florida -2.5 (+140, 2.40) – 1.5 percent: I’m at +104 for Florida winning in five or less. This series looks like a huge mismatch and getting decent plus money for a short series is nice.
- Toronto (-120, 1.83) – 1.9 percent: I’m at -164 for Toronto. The #LeafsBias never fails.
- Colorado 4-0 (+400, 5.00) – 1.3 percent: I’m at +245 for a sweep and with a fully healthy Colorado lineup, it’s tough to see Nashville winning many here.
- Colorado -2.5 (+105, 2.05) – 5.0 percent: I’m at -163 for Colorado winning five or less – so, a max stake on this one. I think people underestimate a fully healthy avalanche lineup and overestimate what the predators can do without Juuse Saros.
Regular Season: 201-182, 20.1 units, 5.3 percent ROI
Playoffs: 3-4, -3.0 units
betstampprofile (2020-21 record does not reflect stake size which is why there’s a discrepancy between what was posted in last year’s betting guide)
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