A short-ish slate doesn’t mean your MLB player prop options are at a premium. We’re looking at a pair of total base props, including Houston Astros infielder Alex Bregman, who is facing a lefty in Marco Gonzales who has handled well in his career.
Major League Baseball throws out the first pitch for the first full week of May with eight games for bettors to dive into. That means no shortage of betting options in the player prop market.
Tonight, we look at one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in the Marlins’ Pablo Lopez, plus total bases props for a former Astros infielder and a current one.
Check out our MLB player prop picks for Monday, May 2, as we bank on some of baseball’s best to do their thing.
MLB props for May 2
Picks made on 5/2/2022 at 12:15 pm ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
Life of Pablo
The Miami Marlins are starting to swim with the big fish in baseball. The bottom feeders have started the season 12-9 thanks — in big part — to their starting pitching. None have been more impressive than right-hander Pablo Lopez. He’ll look to keep dealing when he takes the mound tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Lopez has allowed just one earned run on 13 hits while striking out 23 compared to just four walks over his first four starts of the season. That has resulted in an expected ERA of 2.26 and he has thrown 18 1-3 consecutive scoreless innings. He’ll get a great chance to keep that streak going against the D-Backs.
The only team in the National League that has scored fewer runs than Arizona is the Cincinnati Reds. That ain’t good. The D-Backs own MLB’s worst expected batting average and hit just .188 when facing right-handers as a team this season, that’s the worst mark in the majors. Their .624 OPS ranks 24th.
Lopez also loves pitching at loan Depot Park. He owns a career 2.79 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 36 career starts on his home turf. Bet on Lopez to keep dealing in this matchup and go Under 4.5 hits allowed, a number he has stayed Under in all four of his starts this season.
Pick: Pablo Lopez Under 4.5 hits allowed (-108)
Covers MLB betting analysis
Correa’s turning the corner
Carlos Correa is starting to get comfortable in his new digs and is heating up for the Minnesota Twins. The All-Star shortstop will look to stay hot when he and the Twins open a series in Baltimore against the Orioles.
Correa’s first season in Minnesota got off to a slow start, hitting just .167 with a .506 OPS and one home run over his first 16 games. But the shortstop has been scorching hot over his last four games, collecting 10 hits in 18 at-bats (.556).
Monday night, Correa will face young Orioles left-hander Alexander Wells. The 25-year-old will be making just the ninth start of his career. Wells has only made two long relief appearances this season, both against the Yankees. One was solid, giving up no runs on three hits with three strikeouts over two innings. The other saw him give up two solo home runs in 1 2-3 innings.
As a starter, he has a 7.05 ERA while allowing opponents to hit .296. He also averages just 4 2-3 innings per start. And while the Orioles bullpen has been solid, if unspectacular, they have already logged 96 2-3 innings this season, sixth-most in the MLB.
With Correa also hitting a solid .296 when facing lefties this season, bet on him to keep swinging a hot stick and take the Over on his total bases at plus money.
Pick: Belt Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
Breg your pardon
The Seattle Mariners have gotten off to a solid start this season as they hope to end a lengthy postseason drought.
But it has been a grind for starter Marco Gonzales early on, particularly after having to leave his last start after just 1-3 innings pitched when he got hit by a comebacker on his pitching forearm. But he’ll be back on the bump tonight when the M’s open a series against American League West rivals the Houston Astros.
Gonzales owns a respectable 3.68 ERA heading into tonight’s start, but the advanced numbers paint a different picture. On top of having a 1.50 WHIP, the lefty has an expected ERA of 4.68 and opponents have an expected batting average of .276 with a .575 expected slugging percentage.
Simply put, he’s not missing a ton of barrels at the moment even if opponents haven’t been able to cash in a ton yet.
Funnily enough, his best start of the season came against the Astros, pitching seven innings of four-hit, one-run ball while striking out six. It helps Gonzales that Houston trots out more lefty regulars than most.
But one right-handed Astro who has given him problems over the course of his career has been Alex Bregman.
The Houston third baseman is 9-for-29 (.310) with four extra-base hits and just two strikeouts. Bregman is in a bit of a slump at the moment but has shown signs of breaking out.
Bregman whacked a dinger against the Blue Jays on Friday night and made solid contact several other times throughout the series. And despite not getting the results he wants, he is still being patient at the dish as he is among the league leaders in chase rate.
We’re betting this matchup with Gonzales gets Bregman back on track. Take the Over on his total bases.
Pick: Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
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