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Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

the Dallas Mavericks (1-1) visit Vivint Smart Home Arena Thursday to take on the Utah Jazz (1-1). Tip-off is scheduled for 9 pm ET. Below, we look at the Mavericks at Jazz odds and linesand make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Mavericks enter the third game of the first-round Western Conference playoff series coming off their first win, covering as 5-point underdogs. They won 110-104 Tuesday behind 41 points from G Jalen Brunson.

Dallas has listed superstar G Luka Doncić as questionable with the spread implying he’s more of a doubtful as the MVP-level guard is recovering from a calf sprain. The Mavericks’ win may have bought him some extra time.

The Jazz are at full strength. They won the series opener 99-93, covering as a 5.5-point favorite. Utah covered 6 of its last 8 regular-season games.

The Jazz are led by G Donovan Mitchell, who has been scoring at will this series, averaging 33 points per game. G Bojan Bogdanović and G jordan clarkson are the only other Jazz players to score more than 15 points in a game this series.

Mavericks at Jazz odds and lines

Odds provided by Typical Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:20 am ET.

moneyline: Mavericks +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Jazz -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +6.5 (-108) | Jazz -6.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Mavericks at Jazz key injuries

Mavericks

G Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) out G Luka Doncić (calf) questionable

Jazz

None

Mavericks at Jazz picks and predictions

prediction

Jazz 112, Mavericks 107

moneyline

PASS.

Dallas is good enough to make this far from a walk in the park for Utah, and at -300, the Jazz’s money line has no value. Similarly, home-court advantage is a difference-maker, and Utah should win outright.

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against the spread

READ to the MAVERICKS +6.5 (-108).

The Jazz were among the worst teams in the NBA as a home favorite this season, just 17-22-2 ATS. On the flip side, the Mavericks were solid as a road underdog, 12-10 ATS on the season.

Also Dallas has seemingly figured out Utah. While Mitchell has still been explosive, the Mavs have been able to use Brunson’s basketball IQ to navigate a successful attack. Dallas held Utah to under 105 in both games.

The Mavs shoot the 8th-most 3s and the Jazz sit 13th in opponents’ 3-point shooting rate. Dallas has outshot Utah from deep in both games, hitting 22 threes in Game 2.

Lastly, the Jazz averaged the 6th-most free throws made on the season while the Mavericks allowed just the 8th-fewest attempts. Utah has averaged over 20 free throws which should decline as the series continues.

Given those few advantages to Dallas, it should be able to keep the game within 7.

Over/Under

BET on the OVER210.5 (-108).

Utah is 21-19-1 O/U as a home favorite.

The Jazz have the No. 1 offensive rating at home this season, so they should be able to come out on fire in Game 3. They also have the 5th-highest offensive rebounding rate.

Dallas plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, but it has still managed to go 1-1 O/U through 2 games. In the only one in which the under hit, the Mavs shot 38.2% from the field.

Assuming both teams are competent shooting the ball, the Over 210.5 (-108) should be the best play in this game.

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