A few thoughts on the games from Thursday’s games:
|#||Yam||Team||IP||H||R||ER||HR||BB||SW||TBF||IT WAS||WHIP||W||vFA (pi)||vSI(pi)||SwStr%|
|3||Brandon Woodruff||ONE THOUSAND||5||3||0||0||0||one||two||19||0.00||0.80||one||96.1||95.7||eleven%|
|7||Walker Buehler||THE D||5.2||5||two||two||one||3||4||24||3.18||1.41||0||95.3||95.9||13%|
|17||J. T. Brubaker||PIT||4.1||5||4||4||0||4||5||22||8.31||2.08||0||93.5||93.7||10%|
|twenty-one||shōhei ohtani||THE A||3.2||6||6||6||one||two||5||twenty||14.73||2.18||0||97.6||13%|
- Severino was excellent with a near equal spread among his three pitches that resulted in the 2nd best CSW rate of the day (35%) and 5th best SwStr (17%). He kept the Jays off balance and out-dueled Gausman despite his 37% CSW and 24% SwStr both leading the day (a pair of Jose Trevino RBI 1Bs were the only damage against him). Is Chapman in trouble after a 3-walk meltdown? Check out the latest Bullpen Report.
- Woodruff bounced back from a brutal season and while he had just 2 Ks, he was very much in control against the Cards, allowing just a 76.2 average Exit Velo and 13% Hard Hit rate, both lowest of the day.
- Gilbert battled insane wind in Chicago (25-30 mph) and allowed just an unearned run in five capable innings of work. Grading on a curve that takes into account the elements, Gilbert gets high marks despite paltry 6% SwStr and 18% CSW rates.
- Buehler got an early lead and seemed to be on autopilot with a solid outing, but far from dominant.
- Greinke & Mize damn near mirroring each other is fitting as Mize would love to follow Greinke’s trajectory and enjoy his heights, but currently looks a lot like present-day Greinke.
- Steele’s velo jumped back up and he did well enough in Coors. The Cubs might have something with exciting lefty. He is a 2-pitch guy which could curb upside against righty-heavy lineups (career 290-pt. platoon split), but early on he has flipped the platoon split to a 204-pt. advantage against righties (of course, he has just 9 PA vL so far). A 2-start week (TB, PIT) will make him a 12- and 15-team FAAB consideration this weekend. I’m elevating him to team streamer status right now.
- Irvin is a soft-tossing streamer who lives on a thin margin for fantasy relevance due in large part to a lack of bat-missing ability. A 2-step at home against BAL and TEX will put him in focus for 12s and 15s this weekend for sure.
- Dunning’s 7 Ks weren’t enough to salvage the start as he was beat up a bit when not getting those punchies with a 67% Hard Hit rate and the highest average Exit Velo of the day at 94.4 mph. I still have some interest in Dunning and believe he can be deep format viable for substantial portions of the season.
- Gibson blew a shot for an excellent start to the season as a 3-run fourth spoiled the outing despite slotting 2nd (19%) and 3rd (34%) on the day in SwStr and CSW, respectively.
- Waino saved his day with 7 Ks as his division rivals tattooed the ball with 8 Hard Hits (57% HH rate), including a Thursday-high 4 Barrels. There is nothing actionable off this start, though, especially with a trip to MIA on the docket next week.
- Morton last five after 5 ER and 7 H in the first 2 innings is a silver lining. Rough start but nothing actionable, even with a trip to the Dodgers on the docket next week.
- With another 3 Barrels on Thursday, Adon pushed just ahead of Max Scherzer for the highest rate in the league just far at 19.4% (Scherzer, 19.2%). If the tiny sample size alone doesn’t do it, then many of the names with them in the top 10 should tamp down the concerns: Eovaldi, Nola, Waino, Ray, Cole, and Severino. Adon isn’t in their caliber, but it’s foolhardy to count the gaudy Barrel Rate as a sharp negative against him while discounting it for his top tier peers. The 23-year-old righty has some real upside, but there will be greater volatility. He is a deep consideration for his 2-start next week at home v. ARI and SF.
- A Jonah Hein grand slam sunk Ohtani and he added 2 more ER in the 4th capping off the dud. He is hardly even used as a starter, but I wouldn’t worry too much about this dud in leagues where he is a split player or daily moves leagues where you can use him as a hitter and pitcher more freely.
HAVE A NIGHT, MANNY
Manny Machado had a super-sized combo meal with 1 HR and 2 SB underscoring his amazing 5-for-6 day with 4 R and 2 RBI. Machado is kind of known for spiking random double-digit SB seasons – 2015, 2018, and 2021 – and with 3 already this year, this could be the first time he goes back-to-back with it!
- MacKenzie Gore, P | RDS – The exciting 23-year-old lefty had a strong spring (16 K, 3 BB in 12 IP) and was even a candidate to break camp until the Padres acquired Sean Manaea. A trip to the IL for Snell has opened the door for Gore and an excellent season debut in Triple-A (5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER/BB, 7 K) looks like he has carried over his spring success. He was said to be battling a case of the yips last year as nothing went right and he just couldn’t locate. Gore gets a tough draw with the reigning World Series winners, but I’m excited to see him and a strong start will make a major target in this weekend’s FAAB.
Heading to the weekend, I’ll give a few names to consider in FAAB for the weekend. I will try to give a name or two for many league sizes.
- Harrison Bader (23% Y, 26% ESPN) – pwr/spd breakout candidate I love this year.
- Nestor Cortes (31% Y, 21% ESPN) – crafty lefty debuted nicely v. TOR & gets a start v. CLE next week.
- David Peralta (55% NFBC OC*) – he’s playing daily & batting 3rd; I’m unmoved by the slow start in a whopping 6 gms.
- jordan hicks (43% NFBC OC) – the electric righty was a surprise winner of the 5th starter role and gets at 2-step at MIA & at CIN next week.
- Oscar Market (17% NFBCME*) – selling out for some early pop (3 HR on 5 H) and I still have some love for him dating back to the 15 HR/SB season in ’19, but…
- Josh Naylor (0% NFBC ME) – …with Naylor’s return from the IL, it could create some playing time issues. I’m a big Naylor fan, too, but his return from him will likely hamper one of the fast starting breakouts in CLE: Mercado or Owen Miller.
- michael lorenzen (38% NFBCME) – while I’m not psyched about a start at HOU, I’ve been big on Lorenzen this year and I’m starting him in deeper formats. Even if you want to pass at HOU, I’d consider stashing him if your roster has the space.
Here is What To Watch Today for Tuesday, April 12th:
- my guy joe ryan has to face the Red Sox in Boston for his second start, but I think he rebounds after a tough season debut.
- Dog tarik skubal take advantage of spacious Kauffman Stadium and keep the ball in the park v. the Royals?
- Will Mitch Keller‘s added veil start paying dividends?
- I’m always dialed in on Paul Lopez starts.
- what does Carlos Rodon does for an encore after 12 Ks in his season debut?
- Drew Rasmussen aims to prove he can deliver at least 5 IPs consistently.
- Reid Detmers was a favorite breakout pick of mine so I’m definitely keyed in on his starts.
- Will Freddy Peralta join his ace rotation mates in rebounding after a dud start in Wrigley?
- A pair of intriguing prospects square off in San Diego with Kyle Wright and MacKenzie Gore’s MLB debut!
- jake odorizzi and Mark Gonzales are a couple of mid-tier streamer types who will have bouts of value in many formats and could play themselves into being held on rosters if they do well.
- I think Tony Gonsolin bounces back this year and I was pleased with his debut in Coors (3 IP/1 ER/3 K).